{"topic":{"id":14883,"title":"一个有趣的心理学小实验","slug":"topic","categoryId":4,"createdAt":"2025-07-05 13:26:23.500288","bumpedAt":"2025-07-07 03:22:33.830432","views":224,"postsCount":14,"highestPostNumber":14,"likeCount":12,"closed":false,"pinned":false,"pinnedGlobally":false,"pinnedAt":null,"pinnedUntil":null,"isBanner":false,"excerpt":"请在下面三组投票中，每组选择一项。 A. 一定赚到 240 块 B. 25% 概率赚到 1000 块，75% 概率一无所获 C. 一定损失 750 块 D. 75% 概率损失 1000 块，25% 概率不损失 E. 25% 概率赚到 240 块，75% 概率损失 760 块 F. 25% 概率赚到 250 块，75% 概率损失 750 块","deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"category":{"id":4,"name":"谈笑风生","slug":"general","color":"25AAE2"},"author":{"id":425,"username":"Ogiso_Setsuna","name":"小木曽雪菜","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/84/e3/84e328169491dbc81e9b54386b259ed63a8e6678875dcf17803ec69c4c25cb99.avif"},"tags":["social-experiment"]},"posts":[{"id":59751,"postNumber":1,"raw":"请在下面三组投票中，每组选择一项。\n[poll name=poll1 type=regular results=always public=false chartType=pie]\n* A. 一定赚到 240 块\n* B. 25% 概率赚到 1000 块，75% 概率一无所获\n[/poll]\n[poll name=poll2 type=regular results=always public=false chartType=pie]\n* C. 一定损失 750 块\n* D. 75% 概率损失 1000 块，25% 概率不损失\n[/poll]\n[poll name=poll3 type=regular results=always public=false chartType=pie]\n* E. 25% 概率赚到 240 块，75% 概率损失 760 块\n* F. 25% 概率赚到 250 块，75% 概率损失 750 块\n[/poll]","cooked":"

请在下面三组投票中，每组选择一项。

A. 一定赚到 240 块
B. 25% 概率赚到 1000 块，75% 概率一无所获

C. 一定损失 750 块
D. 75% 概率损失 1000 块，25% 概率不损失

E. 25% 概率赚到 240 块，75% 概率损失 760 块
F. 25% 概率赚到 250 块，75% 概率损失 750 块

","createdAt":"2025-07-05 13:26:23.632804","updatedAt":"2025-07-05 13:29:26.245116","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":117,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[{"id":191,"name":"poll2","type":"regular","status":"open","results":"always","visibility":"secret","min":null,"max":null,"step":null,"closeAt":null,"options":[{"id":986,"digest":"c1cc051f95b05105d6dea2270ddc3024","html":"C. 一定损失 750 块","votesCount":6,"voters":[]},{"id":987,"digest":"25cc88a4fab42f0ade984ccd3bbb423d","html":"D. 75% 概率损失 1000 块，25% 概率不损失","votesCount":15,"voters":[]}],"userVotes":[],"totalVoters":21},{"id":192,"name":"poll3","type":"regular","status":"open","results":"always","visibility":"secret","min":null,"max":null,"step":null,"closeAt":null,"options":[{"id":988,"digest":"5b38537602cdb735fe69bffebdbdf539","html":"E. 25% 概率赚到 240 块，75% 概率损失 760 块","votesCount":0,"voters":[]},{"id":989,"digest":"e62a8109a88e01769f20eb5c7c287e09","html":"F. 25% 概率赚到 250 块，75% 概率损失 750 块","votesCount":22,"voters":[]}],"userVotes":[],"totalVoters":22},{"id":193,"name":"poll1","type":"regular","status":"open","results":"always","visibility":"secret","min":null,"max":null,"step":null,"closeAt":null,"options":[{"id":984,"digest":"f2f97ed8ca3a826df643bc269317537f","html":"A. 一定赚到 240 块","votesCount":15,"voters":[]},{"id":985,"digest":"906a122d5dc8c010bb1572a0c52da0f7","html":"B. 25% 概率赚到 1000 块，75% 概率一无所获","votesCount":6,"voters":[]}],"userVotes":[],"totalVoters":21}],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":425,"username":"Ogiso_Setsuna","name":"小木曽雪菜","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/84/e3/84e328169491dbc81e9b54386b259ed63a8e6678875dcf17803ec69c4c25cb99.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":59752,"postNumber":2,"raw":"第三个投票是在确认是否真人吗 :tieba_laugh:","cooked":"

第三个投票是在确认是否真人吗 $\":tieba_laugh:\"$

\n","createdAt":"2025-07-05 13:30:49.389415","updatedAt":"2025-07-05 13:30:49.389415","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":4,"wordCount":15,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"🤣️","count":1,"users":[{"id":5905,"username":"PipaQinse233","name":"PipaQinse233"}],"hasReacted":false},{"reaction":"❤️","count":3,"users":[{"id":2902,"username":"1313","name":"ᐕ)ﾉ"},{"id":5905,"username":"PipaQinse233","name":"PipaQinse233"},{"id":7364,"username":"青年杰出贡献上交大門人","name":"紫金港第一皮革<・)))><<"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":30,"username":"一只玉米人","name":"玉米🌽","avatarUrl":"/uploads/blob/14/96/14961aeaa46ccbb75a61eec0c27b26e74fb5d1c00ccdcbbe898ca9ea37087dd6.svg","admin":false,"moderator":true,"signatureRaw":"*年月擦身过，暂且问，会更好吗？*","signatureCooked":"

年月擦身过，暂且问，会更好吗？

\n"}},{"id":59753,"postNumber":3,"raw":"第一个结果为什么是饼状图👀","cooked":"

第一个结果为什么是饼状图👀

\n","createdAt":"2025-07-05 13:36:29.452274","updatedAt":"2025-07-05 13:36:29.452274","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":13,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":7014,"username":"兴庆宫第一迷路幽灵","name":"post deleted by author","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/bb/0e/bb0ebbc98562fa3e00284e17f15383c53f688af071adf093639e69f313d610a1.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"此人不语，只是一味地在门里生产废料。","signatureCooked":"

此人不语，只是一味地在门里生产废料。

\n"}},{"id":59754,"postNumber":4,"raw":":face_with_monocle:感觉很熟悉","cooked":"

🧐感觉很熟悉

\n","createdAt":"2025-07-05 13:38:33.322846","updatedAt":"2025-07-05 13:38:33.322846","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":6,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":200,"username":"Srotseiticar","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/b1/9c/b19c1e66543642c1f8875cee0af0cf23bc42ced9ab04c26a042f5da02566d26c.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":59755,"postNumber":5,"raw":"理论上每一个结果都应该是饼状图，代码似乎没有问题？不改了，改了得重新投票","cooked":"

理论上每一个结果都应该是饼状图，代码似乎没有问题？不改了，改了得重新投票

\n","createdAt":"2025-07-05 13:39:30.938069","updatedAt":"2025-07-05 13:39:30.938069","replyToPostNumber":3,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":36,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":425,"username":"Ogiso_Setsuna","name":"小木曽雪菜","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/84/e3/84e328169491dbc81e9b54386b259ed63a8e6678875dcf17803ec69c4c25cb99.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":59756,"postNumber":6,"raw":"https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion","cooked":"","createdAt":"2025-07-05 13:51:01.03887","updatedAt":"2025-07-05 13:51:01.03887","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":1,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/86/f2/86f267c0aaa73835a999b7cc3a7e7a701605574eda9a2c2a56f5ddbbba64d1a9.avif","admin":true,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"","signatureCooked":null}},{"id":59758,"postNumber":7,"raw":"[游戏可以重复多少次] 也是很重要的","cooked":"

[游戏可以重复多少次] 也是很重要的

\n","createdAt":"2025-07-05 14:06:34.379335","updatedAt":"2025-07-05 14:06:34.379335","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":17,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":4148,"username":"sad-dharma-vipralopa","name":"Echo est ubi sum","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/fd/e3/fde3022e639c0b35239b5c831c0f8ea3600eceb69353bcc2fb5e795f79d789ca.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":59759,"postNumber":8,"raw":"AI:\n\n---\n\n**第一组：**\n\n* **A. 一定赚到 240 块**\n * 期望收益 $R_A = 240$ 元\n * 风险 $\\sigma_A$：由于是确定性收益，没有波动，标准差为 0。\n * 夏普比率 $SR_A = \\frac{240 - 0}{0}$ （数学上，分母为 0 是未定义的，这通常表示无限高的夏普比率，因为没有风险。但在实际比较中，确定性收益通常被认为是最好的，如果其收益足够高）\n\n* **B. 25% 概率赚到 1000 块，75% 概率一无所获**\n * 期望收益 $R_B = (0.25 \\times 1000) + (0.75 \\times 0) = 250$ 元\n * 计算方差：\n * 方差 $Var(B) = \\sum P_i (X_i - R_B)^2$\n * $Var(B) = 0.25 \\times (1000 - 250)^2 + 0.75 \\times (0 - 250)^2$\n * $Var(B) = 0.25 \\times (750)^2 + 0.75 \\times (-250)^2$\n * $Var(B) = 0.25 \\times 562500 + 0.75 \\times 62500$\n * $Var(B) = 140625 + 46875 = 187500$\n * 标准差 $\\sigma_B = \\sqrt{187500} \\approx 433.01$ 元\n * 夏普比率 $SR_B = \\frac{250 - 0}{433.01} \\approx 0.577$\n\n**决策：**\n\n若根据夏普比率做出决策：\n- **A 选项**：240 元，风险为 0。我们可以认为其风险调整收益是无限高的（因为没有风险）。\n- **B 选项**：250 元，风险 433.01 元。夏普比率为 0.577。\n\n在标准的 Sharpe Ratio 框架下，**一个零标准差的资产，只要其期望收益为正，其 Sharpe Ratio 就是无限大的，因此会被视为最优选择。**\n\n**决策第一组：A**\n\n\n---\n\n**第二组：**\n\n* **C. 一定损失 750 块**\n * 期望收益 $R_C = -750$ 元\n * 风险 $\\sigma_C = 0$\n * 夏普比率 $SR_C = \\frac{-750 - 0}{0}$ (同样，分母为 0，但在损失情境下，通常表示极差的夏普比率，因为无论多少风险都会导致负的无限大值，或者说无法定义为正无穷)\n\n* **D. 75% 概率损失 1000 块，25% 概率不损失**\n * 期望收益 $R_D = (0.75 \\times -1000) + (0.25 \\times 0) = -750$ 元\n * 计算方差：\n * 方差 $Var(D) = 0.75 \\times (-1000 - (-750))^2 + 0.25 \\times (0 - (-750))^2$\n * $Var(D) = 0.75 \\times (-250)^2 + 0.25 \\times (750)^2$\n * $Var(D) = 0.75 \\times 62500 + 0.25 \\times 562500$\n * $Var(D) = 46875 + 140625 = 187500$\n * 标准差 $\\sigma_D = \\sqrt{187500} \\approx 433.01$ 元\n * 夏普比率 $SR_D = \\frac{-750 - 0}{433.01} \\approx -1.732$\n\n**决策：**\n两个选项的期望收益都是 -750 元。\n* C: 确定损失 750 元，风险为 0。\n* D: 期望损失 750 元，风险约为 433.01 元。\n\n**决策第二组：C**\n*理由*：在期望损失相同的情况下，选择确定性的损失（风险为 0）比选择有波动的损失更优。这符合风险规避原则，即在相同回报（这里是损失）下，选择风险最小的。\n\n---\n\n**第三组：**\n\n* **E. 25% 概率赚到 240 块，75% 概率损失 760 块**\n * 期望收益 $R_E = (0.25 \\times 240) + (0.75 \\times -760) = 60 - 570 = -510$ 元\n * 计算方差：\n * 方差 $Var(E) = 0.25 \\times (240 - (-510))^2 + 0.75 \\times (-760 - (-510))^2$\n * $Var(E) = 0.25 \\times (750)^2 + 0.75 \\times (-250)^2$\n * $Var(E) = 0.25 \\times 562500 + 0.75 \\times 62500$\n * $Var(E) = 140625 + 46875 = 187500$\n * 标准差 $\\sigma_E = \\sqrt{187500} \\approx 433.01$ 元\n * 夏普比率 $SR_E = \\frac{-510 - 0}{433.01} \\approx -1.178$\n\n* **F. 25% 概率赚到 250 块，75% 概率损失 750 块**\n * 期望收益 $R_F = (0.25 \\times 250) + (0.75 \\times -750) = 62.5 - 562.5 = -500$ 元\n * 计算方差：\n * 方差 $Var(F) = 0.25 \\times (250 - (-500))^2 + 0.75 \\times (-750 - (-500))^2$\n * $Var(F) = 0.25 \\times (750)^2 + 0.75 \\times (-250)^2$\n * $Var(F) = 0.25 \\times 562500 + 0.75 \\times 62500$\n * $Var(F) = 140625 + 46875 = 187500$\n * 标准差 $\\sigma_F = \\sqrt{187500} \\approx 433.01$ 元\n * 夏普比率 $SR_F = \\frac{-500 - 0}{433.01} \\approx -1.155$\n\n\n**决策第三组：F**\n*理由*：在风险（标准差）相同的情况下，F 的期望收益更高（-500 元 vs -510 元），因此其夏普比率更高（-1.155 vs -1.178），代表了更高的风险调整后收益（或者说，更低的风险调整后损失）。\n\n---\n\n\n请注意，夏普比率在处理零风险资产时会产生无限大或无限小的值，这在实际应用中需要额外解释。","cooked":"

AI:

第一组：

\n
A. 一定赚到 240 块
\n
- 期望收益 $R_A = 240$ 元
- 风险 $\\sigma_A$ ：由于是确定性收益，没有波动，标准差为 0。
- 夏普比率 $SR_A = \\frac{240 - 0}{0}$ （数学上，分母为 0 是未定义的，这通常表示无限高的夏普比率，因为没有风险。但在实际比较中，确定性收益通常被认为是最好的，如果其收益足够高）
\n
\n
B. 25% 概率赚到 1000 块，75% 概率一无所获
\n
- 期望收益 $R_B = (0.25 \\times 1000) + (0.75 \\times 0) = 250$ 元
- 计算方差：\n
  - 方差 $Var(B) = \\sum P_i (X_i - R_B)^2$
  - $Var(B) = 0.25 \\times (1000 - 250)^2 + 0.75 \\times (0 - 250)^2$
  - $Var(B) = 0.25 \\times (750)^2 + 0.75 \\times (-250)^2$
  - $Var(B) = 0.25 \\times 562500 + 0.75 \\times 62500$
  - $Var(B) = 140625 + 46875 = 187500$
  \n
- 标准差 $\\sigma_B = \\sqrt{187500} \\approx 433.01$ 元
- 夏普比率 $SR_B = \\frac{250 - 0}{433.01} \\approx 0.577$
\n

决策：

若根据夏普比率做出决策：

A 选项：240 元，风险为 0。我们可以认为其风险调整收益是无限高的（因为没有风险）。
B 选项：250 元，风险 433.01 元。夏普比率为 0.577。

在标准的 Sharpe Ratio 框架下，一个零标准差的资产，只要其期望收益为正，其 Sharpe Ratio 就是无限大的，因此会被视为最优选择。

决策第一组：A

第二组：

\n
C. 一定损失 750 块
\n
- 期望收益 $R_C = -750$ 元
- 风险 $\\sigma_C = 0$
- 夏普比率 $SR_C = \\frac{-750 - 0}{0}$ (同样，分母为 0，但在损失情境下，通常表示极差的夏普比率，因为无论多少风险都会导致负的无限大值，或者说无法定义为正无穷)
\n
\n
D. 75% 概率损失 1000 块，25% 概率不损失
\n
- 期望收益 $R_D = (0.75 \\times -1000) + (0.25 \\times 0) = -750$ 元
- 计算方差：\n
  - 方差 $Var(D) = 0.75 \\times (-1000 - (-750))^2 + 0.25 \\times (0 - (-750))^2$
  - $Var(D) = 0.75 \\times (-250)^2 + 0.25 \\times (750)^2$
  - $Var(D) = 0.75 \\times 62500 + 0.25 \\times 562500$
  - $Var(D) = 46875 + 140625 = 187500$
  \n
- 标准差 $\\sigma_D = \\sqrt{187500} \\approx 433.01$ 元
- 夏普比率 $SR_D = \\frac{-750 - 0}{433.01} \\approx -1.732$
\n

决策：
\n两个选项的期望收益都是 -750 元。

C: 确定损失 750 元，风险为 0。
D: 期望损失 750 元，风险约为 433.01 元。

决策第二组：C
\n理由：在期望损失相同的情况下，选择确定性的损失（风险为 0）比选择有波动的损失更优。这符合风险规避原则，即在相同回报（这里是损失）下，选择风险最小的。

第三组：

\n
E. 25% 概率赚到 240 块，75% 概率损失 760 块
\n
- 期望收益 $R_E = (0.25 \\times 240) + (0.75 \\times -760) = 60 - 570 = -510$ 元
- 计算方差：\n
  - 方差 $Var(E) = 0.25 \\times (240 - (-510))^2 + 0.75 \\times (-760 - (-510))^2$
  - $Var(E) = 0.25 \\times (750)^2 + 0.75 \\times (-250)^2$
  - $Var(E) = 0.25 \\times 562500 + 0.75 \\times 62500$
  - $Var(E) = 140625 + 46875 = 187500$
  \n
- 标准差 $\\sigma_E = \\sqrt{187500} \\approx 433.01$ 元
- 夏普比率 $SR_E = \\frac{-510 - 0}{433.01} \\approx -1.178$
\n
\n
F. 25% 概率赚到 250 块，75% 概率损失 750 块
\n
- 期望收益 $R_F = (0.25 \\times 250) + (0.75 \\times -750) = 62.5 - 562.5 = -500$ 元
- 计算方差：\n
  - 方差 $Var(F) = 0.25 \\times (250 - (-500))^2 + 0.75 \\times (-750 - (-500))^2$
  - $Var(F) = 0.25 \\times (750)^2 + 0.75 \\times (-250)^2$
  - $Var(F) = 0.25 \\times 562500 + 0.75 \\times 62500$
  - $Var(F) = 140625 + 46875 = 187500$
  \n
- 标准差 $\\sigma_F = \\sqrt{187500} \\approx 433.01$ 元
- 夏普比率 $SR_F = \\frac{-500 - 0}{433.01} \\approx -1.155$
\n

决策第三组：F
\n理由：在风险（标准差）相同的情况下，F 的期望收益更高（-500 元 vs -510 元），因此其夏普比率更高（-1.155 vs -1.178），代表了更高的风险调整后收益（或者说，更低的风险调整后损失）。

请注意，夏普比率在处理零风险资产时会产生无限大或无限小的值，这在实际应用中需要额外解释。

\n","createdAt":"2025-07-05 14:19:13.373714","updatedAt":"2025-07-05 14:19:13.373714","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":3,"wordCount":1052,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"💔️","count":1,"users":[{"id":200,"username":"Srotseiticar","name":null}],"hasReacted":false},{"reaction":"💯️","count":1,"users":[{"id":425,"username":"Ogiso_Setsuna","name":"小木曽雪菜"}],"hasReacted":false},{"reaction":"❤️","count":3,"users":[{"id":200,"username":"Srotseiticar","name":null},{"id":425,"username":"Ogiso_Setsuna","name":"小木曽雪菜"},{"id":2902,"username":"1313","name":"ᐕ)ﾉ"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/86/f2/86f267c0aaa73835a999b7cc3a7e7a701605574eda9a2c2a56f5ddbbba64d1a9.avif","admin":true,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"","signatureCooked":null}},{"id":59760,"postNumber":9,"raw":"在一些心理学书看过例子，但是实际做下来，可能你得把这个数值设的大一点，几百块没有什么感觉。","cooked":"

在一些心理学书看过例子，但是实际做下来，可能你得把这个数值设的大一点，几百块没有什么感觉。

\n","createdAt":"2025-07-05 14:31:26.69248","updatedAt":"2025-07-05 14:31:26.69248","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":2,"wordCount":45,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"plus1","count":2,"users":[{"id":2902,"username":"1313","name":"ᐕ)ﾉ"},{"id":7014,"username":"兴庆宫第一迷路幽灵","name":"post deleted by author"}],"hasReacted":false},{"reaction":"❤️","count":2,"users":[{"id":2902,"username":"1313","name":"ᐕ)ﾉ"},{"id":7014,"username":"兴庆宫第一迷路幽灵","name":"post deleted by author"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":346,"username":"hoist","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/0d/cd/0dcdf69d213b6798002779ad4b729567cd4d889ee4a56c07a8c4454e8b563219.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":59853,"postNumber":10,"raw":"顶顶，你站果然没有活人。","cooked":"

顶顶，你站果然没有活人。

\n","createdAt":"2025-07-06 05:07:23.667805","updatedAt":"2025-07-06 05:07:23.667805","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":2,"wordCount":12,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"🐁️","count":1,"users":[{"id":200,"username":"Srotseiticar","name":null}],"hasReacted":false},{"reaction":"sleeping_mouse","count":1,"users":[{"id":5905,"username":"PipaQinse233","name":"PipaQinse233"}],"hasReacted":false},{"reaction":"❤️","count":2,"users":[{"id":200,"username":"Srotseiticar","name":null},{"id":5905,"username":"PipaQinse233","name":"PipaQinse233"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":425,"username":"Ogiso_Setsuna","name":"小木曽雪菜","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/84/e3/84e328169491dbc81e9b54386b259ed63a8e6678875dcf17803ec69c4c25cb99.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":59869,"postNumber":11,"raw":"截止目前 7 月 6 日下午 15:46 分，共有 16 位塬友投票；其中，第一组有 68.75% 的人选了 A，第二组有 68.75% 的人选了 D，第三组有 100% 的人选了 F。调查一下：\n[poll type=regular results=always public=true chartType=pie]\n# 你是否选择了 ADF？\n* 是\n* 否\n[/poll]","cooked":"

截止目前 7 月 6 日下午 15:46 分，共有 16 位塬友投票；其中，第一组有 68.75% 的人选了 A，第二组有 68.75% 的人选了 D，第三组有 100% 的人选了 F。调查一下：

你是否选择了 ADF？

","createdAt":"2025-07-06 07:46:20.192144","updatedAt":"2025-07-06 07:50:02.298068","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":78,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[{"id":194,"name":"poll","type":"regular","status":"open","results":"always","visibility":"everyone","min":null,"max":null,"step":null,"closeAt":null,"options":[{"id":990,"digest":"864f0da7b1ecbde8d3c08c096d042adf","html":"是","votesCount":4,"voters":[{"id":200,"username":"Srotseiticar","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/b1/9c/b19c1e66543642c1f8875cee0af0cf23bc42ced9ab04c26a042f5da02566d26c.avif"},{"id":3880,"username":"Betrem","name":"Bbox","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/88/7b/887b5e6cc109dacdc7368478f2c15dc05a5d45ae46ee0672925c935323e03173.avif"},{"id":2902,"username":"1313","name":"ᐕ)ﾉ","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/54/54/5454f44e713b53c012953b2de450d2539979427ce4ccbd5683c76257f88ee733.avif"},{"id":5351,"username":"Xrystal-line","name":"羽流弦ノ迹","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/72/98/7298d3ea7916b6c479dd74ed59ccee4a89ee2837db7815cc98da181331487296.avif"}]},{"id":991,"digest":"852db717e13c01c9abe4d2b92c994068","html":"否","votesCount":6,"voters":[{"id":7014,"username":"兴庆宫第一迷路幽灵","name":"post deleted by author","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/bb/0e/bb0ebbc98562fa3e00284e17f15383c53f688af071adf093639e69f313d610a1.avif"},{"id":30,"username":"一只玉米人","name":"玉米🌽","avatarUrl":"/uploads/blob/14/96/14961aeaa46ccbb75a61eec0c27b26e74fb5d1c00ccdcbbe898ca9ea37087dd6.svg"},{"id":346,"username":"hoist","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/0d/cd/0dcdf69d213b6798002779ad4b729567cd4d889ee4a56c07a8c4454e8b563219.avif"},{"id":2877,"username":"Zerick","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/a7/a3/a7a3f86ac04b30a3177766813966fa48ce68b0e1cc009a8d274e34ab13a43ce9.avif"},{"id":6703,"username":"Mish233","name":"Mish233","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/87/ec/87eca639c3c7ca9ecb20da86019c253fa813156f198f0c4e725ba413e1b4bd6d.avif"},{"id":7245,"username":"anon42647320","name":null,"avatarUrl":null}]}],"userVotes":[],"totalVoters":10}],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":425,"username":"Ogiso_Setsuna","name":"小木曽雪菜","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/84/e3/84e328169491dbc81e9b54386b259ed63a8e6678875dcf17803ec69c4c25cb99.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":59996,"postNumber":12,"raw":"再顶顶。你站真实活跃人数应该在 30 人左右","cooked":"

再顶顶。你站真实活跃人数应该在 30 人左右

\n","createdAt":"2025-07-07 01:23:08.66093","updatedAt":"2025-07-07 01:23:08.66093","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":19,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":425,"username":"Ogiso_Setsuna","name":"小木曽雪菜","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/84/e3/84e328169491dbc81e9b54386b259ed63a8e6678875dcf17803ec69c4c25cb99.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":60003,"postNumber":13,"raw":"截止目前 7 月 7 日上午 11:18 分，共有 20 位塬友投票；其中，第一组有 65% 的人选了 A，第二组有 70% 的人选了 D，第三组有 100% 的人选了 F。在小调查中，投票人数不足，只有 9 人，其中 3 人选择了 ADF 而 6 人没有选择 ADF；根据已有数据可以简单计算得出，选择 ADF 的人数在 7 人到 13 人之间，无论哪种情况选择 ADF 的都是多数，在所有选项组合中占比第一。","cooked":"

截止目前 7 月 7 日上午 11:18 分，共有 20 位塬友投票；其中，第一组有 65% 的人选了 A，第二组有 70% 的人选了 D，第三组有 100% 的人选了 F。在小调查中，投票人数不足，只有 9 人，其中 3 人选择了 ADF 而 6 人没有选择 ADF；根据已有数据可以简单计算得出，选择 ADF 的人数在 7 人到 13 人之间，无论哪种情况选择 ADF 的都是多数，在所有选项组合中占比第一。

\n","createdAt":"2025-07-07 03:18:26.107684","updatedAt":"2025-07-07 03:18:26.107684","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":147,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":425,"username":"Ogiso_Setsuna","name":"小木曽雪菜","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/84/e3/84e328169491dbc81e9b54386b259ed63a8e6678875dcf17803ec69c4c25cb99.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":60005,"postNumber":14,"raw":"[quote=\"清尘，post:2, topic:14883, full:true, username:南麓第一女飞贼\"]\n第三个投票是在确认是否真人吗 :tieba_laugh:\n[/quote]\n\n注意到第三个投票中，E 选项正好恰恰是把 A 和 D 选项组合所得到的结果，F 选项正好恰恰是 B 和 C 组合的结果。然而多数人选择了 ADF，在自以为理性的情况下做出了自相矛盾的选择。","cooked":"

\n\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t清尘，post:2, topic:14883, full:true, username:南麓第一女飞贼:\n\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t

\n
第三个投票是在确认是否真人吗 $\":tieba_laugh:\"$
\n

\n\t\t\t\t

注意到第三个投票中，E 选项正好恰恰是把 A 和 D 选项组合所得到的结果，F 选项正好恰恰是 B 和 C 组合的结果。然而多数人选择了 ADF，在自以为理性的情况下做出了自相矛盾的选择。

\n","createdAt":"2025-07-07 03:22:33.830432","updatedAt":"2025-07-07 03:22:33.830432","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":1,"wordCount":109,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"hugging_face_exploding_head","count":1,"users":[{"id":30,"username":"一只玉米人","name":"玉米🌽"}],"hasReacted":false},{"reaction":"❤️","count":1,"users":[{"id":30,"username":"一只玉米人","name":"玉米🌽"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":425,"username":"Ogiso_Setsuna","name":"小木曽雪菜","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/84/e3/84e328169491dbc81e9b54386b259ed63a8e6678875dcf17803ec69c4c25cb99.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}}],"hasMore":false,"lastReadPostNumber":1,"hasUrlPostNumber":false}