{"topic":{"id":14586,"title":"此情或可待：“离婚冷静期”规定对离婚登记数量趋势的影响_董浩","slug":"topic","categoryId":4,"createdAt":"2025-05-19 11:09:24.884894","bumpedAt":"2025-05-19 14:45:48.903321","views":115,"postsCount":4,"highestPostNumber":4,"likeCount":0,"closed":false,"pinned":false,"pinnedGlobally":false,"pinnedAt":null,"pinnedUntil":null,"isBanner":false,"excerpt":"此情或可待：“离婚冷静期”...定对离婚登记数量趋势的影响_董浩.pdf|attachment (1.9 MB)","deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"category":{"id":4,"name":"谈笑风生","slug":"general","color":"25AAE2"},"author":{"id":1590,"username":"Revan","name":" ","avatarUrl":null},"tags":[]},"posts":[{"id":50979,"postNumber":1,"raw":"[此情或可待：“离婚冷静期”...定对离婚登记数量趋势的影响_董浩.pdf|attachment](/uploads/pdf/38/21/3821ec610f512012be8918379a1d8c490e51036882300daca89c6716fd2b5eef.pdf) (1.9 MB)","cooked":"

此情或可待：“离婚冷静期”...定对离婚登记数量趋势的影响_董浩.pdf|attachment (1.9 MB)

\n","createdAt":"2025-05-19 11:09:25.003759","updatedAt":"2025-05-19 11:09:25.003759","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":32,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":1590,"username":"Revan","name":" ","avatarUrl":null,"admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":50981,"postNumber":2,"raw":"不结婚就不会离婚了","cooked":"

不结婚就不会离婚了

\n","createdAt":"2025-05-19 11:22:37.687114","updatedAt":"2025-05-19 11:22:37.687114","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":9,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/86/f2/86f267c0aaa73835a999b7cc3a7e7a701605574eda9a2c2a56f5ddbbba64d1a9.avif","admin":true,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"","signatureCooked":null}},{"id":50996,"postNumber":3,"raw":"这些小政策不改变大趋势，核心变量是现代化使得婴儿死亡率大大降低，因此不需要一次性生一堆了。现代化也使得养育成本变高，周期末期刚好是人口出清阶段，所以会大大低于实际更替水平（S 曲线收敛前的超调量）\n\n![GrSyr5VWIAAPiJN|688x404](/uploads/image/61/4c/614ccfc2394da7f9a9e3528d2b8a38d950ce3005b9ab2cb62b73f316bb5d6d73.avif)","cooked":"

这些小政策不改变大趋势，核心变量是现代化使得婴儿死亡率大大降低，因此不需要一次性生一堆了。现代化也使得养育成本变高，周期末期刚好是人口出清阶段，所以会大大低于实际更替水平（S 曲线收敛前的超调量）

$\"GrSyr5VWIAAPiJN\"$

\n","createdAt":"2025-05-19 14:42:42.710864","updatedAt":"2025-05-19 14:42:42.710864","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":97,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/86/f2/86f267c0aaa73835a999b7cc3a7e7a701605574eda9a2c2a56f5ddbbba64d1a9.avif","admin":true,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"","signatureCooked":null}},{"id":50997,"postNumber":4,"raw":"没有什么是理所当然的，“几乎所有人都会结婚生子”在中国历史上没发生过几次（一般发生在新王朝建立初期和生产力大幅提高时）。却几乎占据了上一代人的全部生活经验，过于局部的认知材料比较容易过拟合。","cooked":"

没有什么是理所当然的，“几乎所有人都会结婚生子”在中国历史上没发生过几次（一般发生在新王朝建立初期和生产力大幅提高时）。却几乎占据了上一代人的全部生活经验，过于局部的认知材料比较容易过拟合。

\n","createdAt":"2025-05-19 14:45:48.903321","updatedAt":"2025-05-19 14:45:48.903321","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":93,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/86/f2/86f267c0aaa73835a999b7cc3a7e7a701605574eda9a2c2a56f5ddbbba64d1a9.avif","admin":true,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"","signatureCooked":null}}],"hasMore":false,"lastReadPostNumber":1,"hasUrlPostNumber":false}