{"topic":{"id":13727,"title":"风险分摊的困境：概率人看惠民保、百万医疗","slug":"topic","categoryId":11,"createdAt":"2024-10-20 12:24:51.623573","bumpedAt":"2024-10-21 08:09:13.10223","views":230,"postsCount":5,"highestPostNumber":5,"likeCount":6,"closed":false,"pinned":false,"pinnedGlobally":false,"pinnedAt":null,"pinnedUntil":null,"isBanner":false,"excerpt":"将巨大的但概率很小的风险分摊到每一个个体身上，在学概率的人看来是个非常聪明的想法。这也是保险最初的原理，个人无法承受的财产损失被许多人聚合的保费冲抵了。可惜现实并不这么美好，存在各种问题。百万医疗是最具上述原始保险味的保险。一万块的高免赔额创造了一个几百的低保费。高免赔额意味着低风险的事是自我承担的，本身一万以内的医疗费用还不足毁灭一个人的资产状况，没有迫切必要动用保险的力量。高赔付额度，意味着财产受到毁灭性的打击时，充分得到保险的缓…","deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"category":{"id":11,"name":"深入交流","slug":"distilled","color":"c01c28"},"author":{"id":346,"username":"hoist","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/0d/cd/0dcdf69d213b6798002779ad4b729567cd4d889ee4a56c07a8c4454e8b563219.avif"},"tags":[]},"posts":[{"id":41847,"postNumber":1,"raw":"将巨大的但概率很小的风险分摊到每一个个体身上，在学概率的人看来是个非常聪明的想法。这也是保险最初的原理，个人无法承受的财产损失被许多人聚合的保费冲抵了。可惜现实并不这么美好，存在各种问题。\n\n百万医疗是最具上述原始保险味的保险。一万块的高免赔额创造了一个几百的低保费。高免赔额意味着低风险的事是自我承担的，本身一万以内的医疗费用还不足毁灭一个人的资产状况，没有迫切必要动用保险的力量。高赔付额度，意味着财产受到毁灭性的打击时，充分得到保险的缓冲。\n\n但是这投保往往有限制，六七十岁以上便不能投保，从保险公司角度，高年龄段风险过大。但投保人知道自己风险最大的时候是在老年期，此时失去保险，是风险最大的时候却失去保障了，似乎没有彻底完成保险分摊风险的任务。\n\n惠民保，作为政府背景普惠型保险，倒是不顾忌投保人的年龄、既往病史，但是遭遇的“死亡螺旋”问题威胁不小。死亡螺旋指，随时间推移，健康人士觉得不划算，退出保险，而高风险人士，更有继续留在保险内的动力，于是赔偿比例上升，为了资金池安全，保险公司必提高保单价格，而更高的费用使得健康人加快流失，保险进入赔付费用和保单价格轮番上升的怪圈里。概率上来说本质是因为投保人对自己的健康状况有先验信息而导致的不同判断。\n\n惠民保的特殊地位，使得它不能随意提高保费。资金池危险的保险必将被迫停止，目前 [近三成停止运营](https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20231218A09I1D00)。仍然存活的，如温州益康宝，2021 年版到 2022 年版削减保额从 180 万至 50 万，改赔付比例为阶梯制，2022 年版到 2024 年版有所回升。（见其公众号 6 月发布的各年保单）可能是有持续运营的信心，但赔付力度也就只能小一些了。","cooked":"

将巨大的但概率很小的风险分摊到每一个个体身上，在学概率的人看来是个非常聪明的想法。这也是保险最初的原理，个人无法承受的财产损失被许多人聚合的保费冲抵了。可惜现实并不这么美好，存在各种问题。

百万医疗是最具上述原始保险味的保险。一万块的高免赔额创造了一个几百的低保费。高免赔额意味着低风险的事是自我承担的，本身一万以内的医疗费用还不足毁灭一个人的资产状况，没有迫切必要动用保险的力量。高赔付额度，意味着财产受到毁灭性的打击时，充分得到保险的缓冲。

但是这投保往往有限制，六七十岁以上便不能投保，从保险公司角度，高年龄段风险过大。但投保人知道自己风险最大的时候是在老年期，此时失去保险，是风险最大的时候却失去保障了，似乎没有彻底完成保险分摊风险的任务。

惠民保，作为政府背景普惠型保险，倒是不顾忌投保人的年龄、既往病史，但是遭遇的“死亡螺旋”问题威胁不小。死亡螺旋指，随时间推移，健康人士觉得不划算，退出保险，而高风险人士，更有继续留在保险内的动力，于是赔偿比例上升，为了资金池安全，保险公司必提高保单价格，而更高的费用使得健康人加快流失，保险进入赔付费用和保单价格轮番上升的怪圈里。概率上来说本质是因为投保人对自己的健康状况有先验信息而导致的不同判断。

惠民保的特殊地位，使得它不能随意提高保费。资金池危险的保险必将被迫停止，目前近三成停止运营。仍然存活的，如温州益康宝，2021 年版到 2022 年版削减保额从 180 万至 50 万，改赔付比例为阶梯制，2022 年版到 2024 年版有所回升。（见其公众号 6 月发布的各年保单）可能是有持续运营的信心，但赔付力度也就只能小一些了。

\n","createdAt":"2024-10-20 12:24:51.858628","updatedAt":"2024-12-03 12:51:52.478375","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":4,"wordCount":661,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":4,"users":[{"id":151,"username":"Rin","name":"Tomotake Rin"},{"id":2902,"username":"1313","name":"ᐕ)ﾉ"},{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null},{"id":5151,"username":"Soyo34325","name":"Soyo34325"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":2,"publicVersion":2,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":346,"username":"hoist","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/0d/cd/0dcdf69d213b6798002779ad4b729567cd4d889ee4a56c07a8c4454e8b563219.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":41856,"postNumber":2,"raw":"我一直以来认为养老保险 / 社保有点像一个庞氏骗局","cooked":"

我一直以来认为养老保险 / 社保有点像一个庞氏骗局

\n","createdAt":"2024-10-20 13:27:16.543715","updatedAt":"2024-12-22 15:20:07.738439","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":1,"wordCount":23,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":1,"users":[{"id":5800,"username":"qiongqu","name":"qiongqu"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/86/f2/86f267c0aaa73835a999b7cc3a7e7a701605574eda9a2c2a56f5ddbbba64d1a9.avif","admin":true,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"","signatureCooked":null}},{"id":41858,"postNumber":3,"raw":"一点点吧，但复杂太多了。职业年金规定利率上限就是为了防止旁氏骗局的。社保影响因素更多了，不平衡的财政补贴，投资收益，通胀，人口，算明白也不容易。","cooked":"

一点点吧，但复杂太多了。职业年金规定利率上限就是为了防止旁氏骗局的。社保影响因素更多了，不平衡的财政补贴，投资收益，通胀，人口，算明白也不容易。

\n","createdAt":"2024-10-20 14:56:46.110386","updatedAt":"2024-10-20 14:56:46.110386","replyToPostNumber":2,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":1,"wordCount":72,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":1,"users":[{"id":151,"username":"Rin","name":"Tomotake Rin"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":346,"username":"hoist","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/0d/cd/0dcdf69d213b6798002779ad4b729567cd4d889ee4a56c07a8c4454e8b563219.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":41870,"postNumber":4,"raw":"医保年年涨，社保枯竭早成定局，保无可保。保乎哉？不保也。","cooked":"

医保年年涨，社保枯竭早成定局，保无可保。保乎哉？不保也。

\n","createdAt":"2024-10-21 07:13:40.359147","updatedAt":"2024-10-21 07:13:40.359147","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":28,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":424,"username":"ascah","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/5e/97/5e97b59e771d24d1195b20454be3dd5ec6a74b6581b637ec88711aa70f6372bb.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":41877,"postNumber":5,"raw":"过于竭泽而渔失去人口（未来税源）的历史可太多了","cooked":"

过于竭泽而渔失去人口（未来税源）的历史可太多了

\n","createdAt":"2024-10-21 08:09:13.10223","updatedAt":"2024-10-21 08:09:13.10223","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":23,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/86/f2/86f267c0aaa73835a999b7cc3a7e7a701605574eda9a2c2a56f5ddbbba64d1a9.avif","admin":true,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"","signatureCooked":null}}],"hasMore":false,"lastReadPostNumber":3,"hasUrlPostNumber":true}