{"topic":{"id":8889,"title":"[乱谈] 担忧未来经济","slug":"topic","categoryId":4,"createdAt":"2024-01-05 11:03:30.032716","bumpedAt":"2025-05-03 06:17:09.491078","views":724,"postsCount":35,"highestPostNumber":35,"likeCount":22,"closed":false,"pinned":false,"pinnedGlobally":false,"pinnedAt":null,"pinnedUntil":null,"isBanner":false,"excerpt":"——没有水区，写闲话有点不好意思。听闻父亲一熟人三十出头，已营收过亿，员工五十余人，假如年结工资 500w，猜测净利 300w 是有的。感慨世界参差，但作为学生还未有独立经济来源，体会不深，只是常怀着隐隐担忧。近日常看经济文章，如付鹏的《论债务》篇，对经济悲观多于乐观；居民部门杠杆居高不下，财富分配也不均衡，老人持币退休。当然也并非要崩溃了，存量还在；不过日子必不好过，社会也受深刻影响。不知该做点什么才好，熬过一二十年。","deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"category":{"id":4,"name":"谈笑风生","slug":"general","color":"25AAE2"},"author":{"id":346,"username":"hoist","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/0d/cd/0dcdf69d213b6798002779ad4b729567cd4d889ee4a56c07a8c4454e8b563219.avif"},"tags":[]},"posts":[{"id":21266,"postNumber":1,"raw":"——没有水区，写闲话有点不好意思。\n听闻父亲一熟人三十出头，已营收过亿，员工五十余人，假如年结工资 500w，猜测净利 300w 是有的。感慨世界参差，但作为学生还未有独立经济来源，体会不深，只是常怀着隐隐担忧。\n近日常看经济文章，如付鹏的《论债务》篇，对经济悲观多于乐观；居民部门杠杆居高不下，财富分配也不均衡，老人持币退休。当然也并非要崩溃了，存量还在；不过日子必不好过，社会也受深刻影响。\n不知该做点什么才好，熬过一二十年。","cooked":"

——没有水区，写闲话有点不好意思。
\n听闻父亲一熟人三十出头，已营收过亿，员工五十余人，假如年结工资 500w，猜测净利 300w 是有的。感慨世界参差，但作为学生还未有独立经济来源，体会不深，只是常怀着隐隐担忧。
\n近日常看经济文章，如付鹏的《论债务》篇，对经济悲观多于乐观；居民部门杠杆居高不下，财富分配也不均衡，老人持币退休。当然也并非要崩溃了，存量还在；不过日子必不好过，社会也受深刻影响。
\n不知该做点什么才好，熬过一二十年。

\n","createdAt":"2024-01-05 11:03:30.10429","updatedAt":"2024-01-05 11:03:30.10429","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":2,"likeCount":2,"wordCount":201,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":2,"users":[{"id":1047,"username":"anonymous_coward_old","name":"Anonymous Coward Old"},{"id":7347,"username":"CR450BF-5033","name":null}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":346,"username":"hoist","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/0d/cd/0dcdf69d213b6798002779ad4b729567cd4d889ee4a56c07a8c4454e8b563219.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":21269,"postNumber":2,"raw":"好几个熟人本科毕业二十出头，纯工资也三百万是有的","cooked":"

好几个熟人本科毕业二十出头，纯工资也三百万是有的

\n","createdAt":"2024-01-05 11:39:49.361502","updatedAt":"2024-01-05 11:39:49.361502","replyToPostNumber":1,"replyCount":2,"likeCount":1,"wordCount":24,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":1,"users":[{"id":346,"username":"hoist","name":null}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":true,"user":{"id":2191,"username":"anonymous","name":null,"avatarUrl":null,"admin":false,"moderator":false}},{"id":21274,"postNumber":3,"raw":"干什么那么能挣 :exploding_head:","cooked":"

干什么那么能挣 🤯

\n","createdAt":"2024-01-05 12:04:59.386718","updatedAt":"2024-01-05 12:04:59.386718","replyToPostNumber":2,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":1,"wordCount":8,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":1,"users":[{"id":346,"username":"hoist","name":null}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":30,"username":"一只玉米人","name":"玉米🌽","avatarUrl":"/uploads/blob/14/96/14961aeaa46ccbb75a61eec0c27b26e74fb5d1c00ccdcbbe898ca9ea37087dd6.svg","admin":false,"moderator":true,"signatureRaw":"*年月擦身过，暂且问，会更好吗？*","signatureCooked":"

年月擦身过，暂且问，会更好吗？

\n"}},{"id":21279,"postNumber":4,"raw":"good。给我提振了一些信心，他们是如何做的","cooked":"

good。给我提振了一些信心，他们是如何做的

\n","createdAt":"2024-01-05 13:45:44.342975","updatedAt":"2024-01-05 13:45:44.342975","replyToPostNumber":2,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":18,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":346,"username":"hoist","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/0d/cd/0dcdf69d213b6798002779ad4b729567cd4d889ee4a56c07a8c4454e8b563219.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":21280,"postNumber":5,"raw":"最重要的是提升个人能力，或者叫“反脆弱性”\n\nhttps://xjtu.app/t/topic/1280","cooked":"

最重要的是提升个人能力，或者叫“反脆弱性”

/t/topic/1280

","createdAt":"2024-01-05 15:34:59.294691","updatedAt":"2024-03-17 13:07:51.25277","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":1,"wordCount":22,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":1,"users":[{"id":346,"username":"hoist","name":null}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":1047,"username":"anonymous_coward_old","name":"Anonymous Coward Old","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/43/32/4332638c11248b8ff07033c11de0759a55205facfbec85e14458245a91991faf.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":21299,"postNumber":6,"raw":"我觉得你知道了很可能会失去一些信心，并把 id 改为 failure","cooked":"

我觉得你知道了很可能会失去一些信心，并把 id 改为 failure

\n","createdAt":"2024-01-05 16:04:40.086288","updatedAt":"2024-01-05 16:04:40.086288","replyToPostNumber":4,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":1,"wordCount":24,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"magic_wand_grin","count":1,"users":[{"id":30,"username":"一只玉米人","name":"玉米🌽"}],"hasReacted":false},{"reaction":"failure","count":1,"users":[{"id":2137,"username":"mingliang_zhong","name":"jingying"}],"hasReacted":false},{"reaction":"❤️","count":1,"users":[{"id":30,"username":"一只玉米人","name":"玉米🌽"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":464,"username":"wxystudio","name":"studio","avatarUrl":null,"admin":false,"moderator":true,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":21300,"postNumber":7,"raw":"username 不能重复，而且我已经为自己保留使用了 failure2。\n\n可以从 failure3 开始，failure 克隆人 N 号机 :rofl:","cooked":"

username 不能重复，而且我已经为自己保留使用了 failure2。

可以从 failure3 开始，failure 克隆人 N 号机 🤣

\n","createdAt":"2024-01-05 16:07:04.034618","updatedAt":"2024-03-17 13:07:51.302423","replyToPostNumber":6,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":34,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"🤗️","count":1,"users":[{"id":178,"username":"Hypocrisy","name":"rotartsinimdA"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":1047,"username":"anonymous_coward_old","name":"Anonymous Coward Old","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/43/32/4332638c11248b8ff07033c11de0759a55205facfbec85e14458245a91991faf.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":21310,"postNumber":8,"raw":"有谜语人 :nose_steam:","cooked":"

有谜语人 😤

\n","createdAt":"2024-01-05 18:16:40.955259","updatedAt":"2024-01-05 18:16:40.955259","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":5,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":601,"username":"m0rsun","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/37/7f/377f4ae853850691ab959270f01d52509ee07caf808041ddb0ab22488a0e9f85.avif","admin":false,"moderator":true,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":21311,"postNumber":9,"raw":"经济文章的来源能推荐一下吗？看到 failure 的未来却不知道 failure 源自何处，这不好","cooked":"

经济文章的来源能推荐一下吗？看到 failure 的未来却不知道 failure 源自何处，这不好

\n","createdAt":"2024-01-05 19:22:08.605173","updatedAt":"2024-01-05 19:22:08.605173","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":33,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":1628,"username":"Lorange","name":"主治医师李大华","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/f8/ec/f8ecbeb887c4a1311f4f0bf05928476c7b3f632d15bb2b24e782baf2ba6f0d71.avif","admin":false,"moderator":true,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":21320,"postNumber":10,"raw":"我看了付鹏的《论债务》系列以及一些演讲，讲债务、人口、居民杠杆等问题，文章发在公众号\"付鹏的财经世界”，讲座一时不好翻到。其他的专业性弱点，时常看知乎王克丹的文章，话题类似；公众号“城市数据团”谈到北上广深的人口外流；一些邻国的情况，比如日本在泡沫经济后的基建收缩。\n另外的，把宏观经济学了，但是感觉没什么用。读了吴晓波《激流三十年》，这个是改革开放经济史。","cooked":"

我看了付鹏的《论债务》系列以及一些演讲，讲债务、人口、居民杠杆等问题，文章发在公众号\"付鹏的财经世界”，讲座一时不好翻到。其他的专业性弱点，时常看知乎王克丹的文章，话题类似；公众号“城市数据团”谈到北上广深的人口外流；一些邻国的情况，比如日本在泡沫经济后的基建收缩。
\n另外的，把宏观经济学了，但是感觉没什么用。读了吴晓波《激流三十年》，这个是改革开放经济史。

\n","createdAt":"2024-01-06 04:28:18.801128","updatedAt":"2024-01-06 06:27:00.131073","replyToPostNumber":9,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":2,"wordCount":176,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":2,"users":[{"id":1047,"username":"anonymous_coward_old","name":"Anonymous Coward Old"},{"id":7014,"username":"兴庆宫第一迷路幽灵","name":"post deleted by author"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":2,"publicVersion":2,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":346,"username":"hoist","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/0d/cd/0dcdf69d213b6798002779ad4b729567cd4d889ee4a56c07a8c4454e8b563219.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":21333,"postNumber":11,"raw":"肉食者谋之。\n很多数据平头老百姓是拿不到的","cooked":"

肉食者谋之。
\n很多数据平头老百姓是拿不到的

\n","createdAt":"2024-01-06 11:14:56.812421","updatedAt":"2024-01-06 11:14:56.812421","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":20,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":299,"username":"sola","name":null,"avatarUrl":null,"admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":21334,"postNumber":12,"raw":"https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-67801387","cooked":"","createdAt":"2024-01-06 12:05:58.741052","updatedAt":"2024-01-06 12:05:58.741052","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":1,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":1047,"username":"anonymous_coward_old","name":"Anonymous Coward Old","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/43/32/4332638c11248b8ff07033c11de0759a55205facfbec85e14458245a91991faf.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":21335,"postNumber":13,"raw":"https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-67881163","cooked":"","createdAt":"2024-01-06 12:09:40.663933","updatedAt":"2024-01-06 12:09:40.663933","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":1,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":1047,"username":"anonymous_coward_old","name":"Anonymous Coward Old","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/43/32/4332638c11248b8ff07033c11de0759a55205facfbec85e14458245a91991faf.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":21338,"postNumber":14,"raw":"键政是会炸论坛的，建议撤回一下。","cooked":"

键政是会炸论坛的，建议撤回一下。

\n","createdAt":"2024-01-06 14:19:37.324911","updatedAt":"2024-01-06 14:19:37.324911","replyToPostNumber":1,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":16,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":true,"user":{"id":2191,"username":"anonymous","name":null,"avatarUrl":null,"admin":false,"moderator":false}},{"id":21342,"postNumber":15,"raw":"@aibot 什么是键政？","cooked":"

@aibot 什么是键政？

\n","createdAt":"2024-01-07 01:20:56.30264","updatedAt":"2024-03-17 13:07:51.394114","replyToPostNumber":14,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":7,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":1047,"username":"anonymous_coward_old","name":"Anonymous Coward Old","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/43/32/4332638c11248b8ff07033c11de0759a55205facfbec85e14458245a91991faf.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":21343,"postNumber":16,"raw":"@anonymous 键政（keyboard politics）是指通过键盘、网络和社交媒体等渠道参与政治讨论和表达政治观点的行为。它是一种民主表达方式，让公众可以通过互联网来讨论和辩论各种政治议题。然而，有些键政行为可能会引发争议，甚至破坏讨论的氛围，因此需要谨慎对待。","cooked":"

@anonymous 键政（keyboard politics）是指通过键盘、网络和社交媒体等渠道参与政治讨论和表达政治观点的行为。它是一种民主表达方式，让公众可以通过互联网来讨论和辩论各种政治议题。然而，有些键政行为可能会引发争议，甚至破坏讨论的氛围，因此需要谨慎对待。

\n","createdAt":"2024-01-07 01:21:03.411759","updatedAt":"2024-01-07 01:21:03.411759","replyToPostNumber":15,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":109,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":-4,"username":"aibot_old","name":"小AI同學","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/02/1b/021bb0b0848388a911ae795dde7c8e5b3f1962316b2d88853208172cd0e89de2.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":21344,"postNumber":17,"raw":"所以楼主发的应该不属于键政喽","cooked":"

所以楼主发的应该不属于键政喽

\n","createdAt":"2024-01-07 01:22:05.690112","updatedAt":"2024-03-17 13:07:51.464706","replyToPostNumber":16,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":14,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":1047,"username":"anonymous_coward_old","name":"Anonymous Coward Old","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/43/32/4332638c11248b8ff07033c11de0759a55205facfbec85e14458245a91991faf.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":21345,"postNumber":18,"raw":"@anonymous 是的，根据楼主提到的内容，他在表达对未来经济的担忧，而非参与具体的政治讨论或表达政治观点，因此可以说他发的内容不属于键政。","cooked":"

@anonymous 是的，根据楼主提到的内容，他在表达对未来经济的担忧，而非参与具体的政治讨论或表达政治观点，因此可以说他发的内容不属于键政。

\n","createdAt":"2024-01-07 01:22:07.83928","updatedAt":"2024-01-07 01:22:07.83928","replyToPostNumber":17,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":62,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":-4,"username":"aibot_old","name":"小AI同學","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/02/1b/021bb0b0848388a911ae795dde7c8e5b3f1962316b2d88853208172cd0e89de2.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":21365,"postNumber":19,"raw":"经济就是个人造命题，人造命题总能被人类解决，反正现在人类总生产力能养活至少 100 亿人","cooked":"

经济就是个人造命题，人造命题总能被人类解决，反正现在人类总生产力能养活至少 100 亿人

\n","createdAt":"2024-01-07 06:43:25.841824","updatedAt":"2024-01-07 06:43:25.841824","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":1,"wordCount":40,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":1,"users":[{"id":346,"username":"hoist","name":null}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":426,"username":"Komeiji_Koishi","name":"Komeiji_Koishi","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/5c/54/5c54227268cd2f275501ca5efdf88f7b1083908db846496c2c46eeb38cf65caa.avif","admin":true,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":21697,"postNumber":20,"raw":"虽然还是乐观一点好，但是问题看不到缓和的迹象。某种程度上以后可能更难，要扛。但是也许大多数人都难。有多少信心就保有多少信心吧，不能说天边已经一片乌云了，还说形势大好。可以肯定的是，车到山前必有路。所以问题不在于有没有路，而是怎么样的路。不能说问题就不存在了，不仅存在，而且还不小。所以能干点什么？不如趁大的还没来，先偷着乐吧","cooked":"

虽然还是乐观一点好，但是问题看不到缓和的迹象。某种程度上以后可能更难，要扛。但是也许大多数人都难。有多少信心就保有多少信心吧，不能说天边已经一片乌云了，还说形势大好。可以肯定的是，车到山前必有路。所以问题不在于有没有路，而是怎么样的路。不能说问题就不存在了，不仅存在，而且还不小。所以能干点什么？不如趁大的还没来，先偷着乐吧

\n","createdAt":"2024-01-13 08:09:18.752956","updatedAt":"2024-01-13 08:09:18.752956","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":1,"wordCount":162,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":1,"users":[{"id":346,"username":"hoist","name":null}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":424,"username":"ascah","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/5e/97/5e97b59e771d24d1195b20454be3dd5ec6a74b6581b637ec88711aa70f6372bb.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}}],"hasMore":true,"lastReadPostNumber":14,"hasUrlPostNumber":true}